Wednesday, May 11, 2011

The real estate cycle

As real estate agents one of the questions we would have to be asked most is, ‘when is the best time to buy real estate’?

Well I’m going to let you in on a little secret…the time is NOW!

After 26 years in the business we’ve seen property prices fluctuate in what’s known as the 7 year cycle of real estate. We see the market peak, then it slows to a flat period and peaks again.

We’ve certainly entered a reasonable time in South Australia, where as discussed in last week’s inside story, Adelaide is the most affordable mainland capital city to live in.

In fact, the latest RP Data Real Estate Market Update reported the market has been fairly flat since May last year and has weakened even further in recent months where, “during the last quarter property values across the combined capital cities have fallen by 1.3%.”

This is good news for those of you looking to acquire property as we are now in a ‘buyer’s market’. RP Data’s statistics show last month in South Australia there were 4,460 new advertised listings. This is quite an increase compared to the 3,244 new listings, which were advertised at the same time last year. With so much choice around this means there may need to be some adjusting in a vendor’s expected selling price when they’re looking to move on.

Buyers you’re also in luck with numerous beautiful properties coming on to the market in the past week. We have homes available ranging from affordable stylish apartments in the heart of the city all the way through to million dollar mansions in South Australia’s most prestigious suburbs.

Another key indictor of the flat lining market is some of the people we have spotted at our open inspections in the past couple of weeks. This market brings out the players in the property game. From our experience these savvy buyers only look at real estate when the market has nearly bottomed out. And when they lead the rest do follow.

When we caught up with this year’s National Residential Salesperson Winner Tim Heavyside, he discussed the 7 year cycle and had some helpful hints for vendors looking to sell in this particular phase…"price, marketing, exposure and the method of sale…all of these factors have to be right.”

For more details on the cycle of real estate with Tim Heavyside take a look at Wednesday’s episode of Toop.TV. While you’re there you can also find out about the financial checklist for potential property purchasers with Wealth By Design’s Christie Rigg and Tim Rogers. That’s all under Episode 78 at

Buyers this is you’re time so don’t hesitate to dive into the property market as you’re likely to be waiting another 7 years before the real estate market is this good again!

Mandy Wurth, General Manager.
© Toop Real Estate Group


Anonymous said...


I'm stuggling here. Please help to understand.

If the market is not only flat (i.e. falling in inflation adjusted terms) but, as you admit, falling in real terms, why is it a good time to buy now?

Wouldn't I be better off waiting to see how far prices fall first i.e. wait for the trough?

And could I further ask - under what circumstances would you advise somewhat NOT to buy now? It seems that there is never a time not to buy now.

Your clarification would be most welcome.

Regards, kim

Anonymous said...

I hear some vendors whom bought around 2008 and whom are now selling are taking substantial losses on their sales. Talking about 7 year cycles, the bottom is not yet in, maybe in 2012, so any buying now is subject to further losses thru 2012 especially if interest rates rise. 'Bottom Fishing' can be like catching a falling knife so buyer beware! In my opinion better to wait and see sales stabalise before buying otherwise you might just be catching a 'falling knife' and especially when it is likely that prices will stagnate for several years to come just as occurred in the 1990's. No hurry to buy, be careful.

jacque.opie said...

This is certainly the feedback we are getting from clients we are talking to on a daily basis. Well put.

Robert said...

Be careful what you wish for!
Property is 20% overvalued in an environment of rising costs of living and wages which are hardly rising. This is hardly the bottom of the property market but rather we may actually be at the 'end of the love affair' with property leading to further decline! The RBA will need to drop rates to stop the decline.